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How likely is every NFL stadium to host WrestleMania? An investigation
With the announcements of WrestleManias 37, 38, and 39, some users were critical of WWE selecting the same venues every year. Every WrestleMania since 23, with the exception of three in Orlando (two at the Citrus Bowl/Camping World Stadium and one at the Performance Center due to COVID-19), has been held at an NFL stadium. As something of an NFL stadium expert, I decided to examine each NFL stadium's likelihood of hosting a future WrestleMania. Please note that some stadiums are located just outside of the city limits listed, but I listed the major city most associated with it (so for instance, while AT&T Stadium is technically in Arlington, it hosts the Dallas Cowboys, so I listed Arlington.) I'm also giving WWE a significant benefit of the doubt and assuming they'd be interested in hosting a Mania outside of their usual go-tos.
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV - Stadium Profile: A $1.9 billion stadium opened in 2020 to house the newly-moved Las Vegas Raiders. Starting in 2021, it will host the Pro Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, and the Pac-12 Championship Game. As of yet, it has not hosted any fans. It has a capacity of 65,000.
- City Profile: Las Vegas is the 28th biggest metro area in the US. Las Vegas previously hosted WrestleMania IX in a temporary arena built at Caesars Palace, and the recently-built T-Mobile Arena hosted 2016 Money in the Bank and 2018 Elimination Chamber.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very high. I'm honestly surprised it didn't host one of the next three Manias given its attractive location and massive new stadium. I suspect it will host one very soon in the future.
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO - Stadium Profile: Arrowhead is the third-oldest stadium in the NFL, having been built in 1972. It had a renovation completed in 2010 and seats 76,416. It's known for its incredibly-loud fans, as they currently hold the world record for loudest crowd at 142.2 decibels.
- City Profile: Kansas City is the 31st biggest metro area in the US. Kansas City has hosted four PPVs, most notably 1999 Over the Edge with the death of Owen Hart and most recently 2010 Money in the Bank.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Arrowhead's age and Kansas City being a smaller market (and not an attractive vacation destination) mean that Missouri won't be hosting WrestleMania any time soon.
AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX - Stadium Profile: "Jerryworld", a pioneer in the billion-dollar stadium craze, opened in 2009 with a listed capacity of 80,000, though it can hold up to 100,000 for special events like WrestleMania and the Super Bowl, which it hosted in 2011. It also hosts the annual Cotton Bowl game.
- City Profile: Dallas is the 4th largest metro area in the US. Dallas hosted WrestleMania 32 at AT&T Stadium and most recently hosted 2017 Great Balls of Fire.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Confirmed, as it will host WrestleMania 38 next year. I suspect this will not be the last.
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC - Stadium Profile: A largely no-frills stadium, Bank of America Stadium was built in 1996 and has a seating capacity of 75,523. In addition to hosting the Charlotte Panthers, it will host Charlotte FC starting in 2022 and has hosted an NCAA bowl game since 2002 and the ACC Championship Game most years since 2010. Though it was renovated in 2017 (and soccer renovations are currently underway), Panthers ownership has expressed a desire for a new stadium.
- City Profile: Charlotte is the 22nd biggest metro area in the US. Nearby Charlotte Coliseum hosted 2019 Clash of Champions, its first PPV in 13 years, and nearby Greensboro has been considered one of wrestling's hotbeds.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. If memory serves, Charlotte was floated as a potential Mania site, but unless they get a new stadium I don't see this nearly as likely as more attractive Southeast locations like Atlanta or Florida.
Bills Stadium, Buffalo, NY - Stadium Profile: The NFL's fourth-oldest stadium, the former Ralph Wilson Stadium houses 71,608. It was the site of the first NHL Winter Classic in 2008 as the Buffalo Sabres hosted the Pittsburgh Penguins.
- City Profile: Buffalo is the 49th biggest metro area in the US. The last PPV Buffalo hosted was 2013 Battleground.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. With many bigger cities nearby and an aging stadium, Buffalo will never host a WrestleMania. Sorry, Bills Mafia.
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO - Stadium Profile: Replacing the historic-but-aging Mile High Stadium in 2001, Empower Field seats 76,125. Notably, 84,000 were in attendance on the last night of the 2008 Democratic National Convention for Barack Obama's acceptance speech.
- City Profile: Denver is the 19th biggest metro area in the US. The nearby Pepsi Center has only hosted one PPV - 2003 Vengeance.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Denver's high altitude doesn't do it any favors, but WWE has been hesitant to run Denver in the past and I suspect with shinier stadiums out West, it will not do so here.
FedExField, Washington, DC (stadium located in Landover, MD)
- Stadium Profile: Once the NFL's largest stadium, FedExField opened in 1997 and currently has a capacity of 82,000. Many upper-level seats were blockaded off in 2011. Even in 2007, Sports Illustrated rated it fourth-lowest in "NFL Fan Value Experience".
- City Profile: Washington is the 6th biggest metro area in the US. Capital One Arena hosted 2005 SummerSlam, 2009 Survivor Series, and most recently 2016 Battleground, but also hosted the inaugural episode of AEW Dynamite.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. A DC 'Mania might sound attractive, but FedExField's unpopularity will keep it off WWE's list. Nationals Park could be an option if WWE chooses to downsize.
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH - Stadium Profile: Sitting on Lake Erie's shore, the "Factory of Sadness" opened in 1999 to host the second incarnation of the Cleveland Browns. It has a capacity of 67,431.
- City Profile: Cleveland is the 34th biggest metro area in the US. It hosted Fastlane in both 2016 and 2019 and also hosted SummerSlam in 1996.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. I'm cold just thinking about late March in Cleveland.
Ford Field, Detroit, MI - Stadium Profile: Built in 2002 as a downtown replacement to the Pontiac Silverdome, Ford Field seats 65,000. It's hosted a bowl game every year since its opening and also hosted Super Bowl XL.
- City Profile: Detroit is the 14th biggest metro area in the US. The Pontiac Silverdome was the site of perhaps the most famous WrestleMania (III), and Ford Field hosted WrestleMania 23 twenty years later. Detroit has also hosted several PPVs, most recently 2017 Hell in a Cell.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. Though WWE has run WrestleMania in Detroit twice in the past, that it has not done so in nearly 20 years seems to indicate it's looking at newer stadiums and more attractive locations.
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA - Stadium Profile: Wedged between Boston and Providence, Gillette Stadium was built in 2002 as a replacement to the aging Foxboro Stadium. It seats 65,878 and hosts the New England Patriots as well as the MLS's New England Revolution.
- City Profile: Boston is the 11th largest metro area in the US. The FleetCenter, now TD Garden, hosted WrestleMania XIV and has hosted several other Big 4 PPVs. It last hosted 2017 Clash of Champions.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. An indoor Boston stadium might be more attractive, but the cold weather serves as a major detriment, especially with NYC nearby.
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL - Stadium Profile: Opened in 1987, the stadium with 11 different names seats 65,326. It's home to the Miami Dolphins, University of Miami football team, and the Orange Bowl game and formerly housed the Florida Marlins baseball team. Amid deterioration, it underwent a massive overhaul in 2015.
- City Profile: Miami has hosted 6 Super Bowls, 5 College Football National Championships, and WrestleMania XXVIII with Miami native The Rock headlining. However, its last PPV was 2013 Hell in a Cell.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Medium. The new stadium overhaul has made it an attractive location for other high-profile events, but WWE seems to have other Florida venues in mind. Perhaps they'll be back to Miami in the coming years.
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA - Stadium Profile: Opened in 2001 along with next-door PNC Park as a replacement to Three Rivers Stadium, Heinz Field seats 68,400. Its open south end has made it one of the toughest places for kickers. It's also hosted two NHL games: the 2011 Winter Classic and 2017 Stadium Series.
- City Profile: Pittsburgh is the 27th largest metro area in the US. It was home to perhaps the most famous match in WWE history, Undertaker vs. Mankind's Hell in a Cell match in 1998. It also hosted the 2014 Royal Rumble and most recently 2018 Extreme Rules.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. As much as I'd love to see a WrestleMania in my home city of Pittsburgh, it's not exactly the biggest destination city in the world, and WWE seems to have shunned Pittsburgh from high-profile events after several negative crowd responses.
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI - Stadium Profile: The NFL's second-oldest stadium, Lambeau Field - named after Packer great Curly Lambeau - opened in 1957. Though single-bowled for most of its life, it added an upper deck at the south endzone in 2013. Most of its 81,441 seats are bleachers.
- City Profile: Green Bay is the 158th biggest metro area in the US. It has never hosted a PPV, though Milwaukee has hosted several, most recently 2017 Fastlane.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Maybe negative.
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA - Stadium Profile: Home to the San Francisco 49ers (though San Francisco is about an hour drive north), Levi's Stadium opened in 2014 and holds 68,500. Its large glass press box has led to criticism for making the stadium too bright and hot during the daytime. Levi's hosted Super Bowl 50, WrestleMania 31, and the 2015 NHL Stadium Series.
- City Profile: San Francisco is the 12th biggest metro area in the US, and San Jose is the 35th biggest metro area in the US. San Francisco has never hosted a PPV (likely to change in the coming years with the opening of the Chase Center). San Jose hosted the 1998 Royal Rumble, 2001 SummerSlam, and most recently 2018 TLC.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. With the opening of SoFi Stadium ensuring multiple WrestleManias in California in the coming decades, accompanied with poor reception to the stadium and to The Undertaker having to make a daytime entrance, WWE probably won't be back to Levi's.
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA - Stadium Profile: Opened in 2003, "The Linc" sits in Philadelphia's famed Philadelphia Sports Complex in the same location as classic venues Veterans Stadium and The Spectrum. Lincoln Financial Field seats 69,796, and in addition to the Philadelphia Eagles and Temple Owls is the usual host of the Army-Navy Game.
- City Profile: Philadelphia is the 8th biggest metro area in the US. Perhaps wrestling's most notorious crowd thanks in part to it being the home of ECW, Philadelphia has hosted a number of high-profile events over the years including WrestleMania XV, the 2015 and 2018 Royal Rumbles, and most recently 2019 Extreme Rules.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low to medium. Philadelphia has been floated as a WrestleMania city before, and though it's not the best climate in early spring, you'd have to imagine a WrestleMania crowd in a normally-raucous city would be a sight (and sound) to behold.
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN - Stadium Profile: Indy sure does love its indoor stadiums. After the Colts moved into the Hoosier Dome (later RCA Dome) in 1984, they opened the retractable-roof Lucas Oil in 2008 with a capacity of 67,000. It's also the host of the Big Ten Championship Game, Super Bowl XLVI, and given Indy's status as a college basketball hub, will host at minimum two Final Fours in the future (2021 and 2026).
- City Profile: Indianapolis is the 33rd biggest metro area in the US. The Hoosier Dome hosted WrestleMania VIII in 1992 and has since hosted a SummerSlam, a Survivor Series, and most recently 2016 Clash of Champions. It's also known to wrestling fans as the city where The Shield was formed in 2012 and where they broke up in 2014.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. While a beautiful stadium, Lucas Oil hasn't brought in as many events as Indianapolis surely hoped, in part due to its small market.
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA - Stadium Profile: Built in 2002 as a replacement to the literally-crumbling Kingdome, the former Qwest and CenturyLink Field holds a nice 69,000. Known for its triangular end zone stand and loud fans known as the "12th Man", it houses the Seattle Seahawks and Seattle Sounders.
- City Profile: Seattle is the 15th largest metro area in the US. Next-door Safeco Field, home to the Mariners, hosted WrestleMania XIX in 2003, and KeyArena has only hosted two PPVs (most recently 2011 Over the Limit), though a major overhaul to the venue will likely change this once WWE resumes touring.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. Safeco Field was WWE's venue of choice in 2003, and while it could be an attractive Rumble target in the coming years, I suspect Lumen won't be on their list.
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD - Stadium Profile: Home to the Baltimore Ravens, it opened in 1998 with a capacity of 71,008. Its most notable feature is its jumbotrons sandwiched between its upper and lower bowls. It's also hosted several Army-Navy games.
- City Profile: Baltimore is the 21st largest metro area in the US. Baltimore has hosted several PPVs, most recently 2017 Extreme Rules.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Though Royal Farms Arena is a common stop on WWE's touring schedule, M&T Bank is surely way low on the list of potential WrestleMania stadiums as it hasn't even been seriously considered in years past.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA - Stadium Profile: Jokingly nicknamed "Megatron" due to its distinctly-shaped exterior and retractable roof, Mercedes-Benz Stadium opened in 2017 at a cost of $1.6 billion and seats 71,000. It hosts the Falcons, Atlanta United, the Peach Bowl, Super Bowl LII, and will surely host more Super Bowls and NCAA championships (both football and basketball).
- City Profile: Atlanta is the 9th biggest metro area in the US and is also home to the world's busiest airport. Atlanta was the host of the 1996 Summer Olympics. The now-demolished Georgia Dome hosted WrestleMania XXVII, and Phillips Arena most recently hosted 2015 Survivor Series.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Extremely high. The only thing I see as a detraction is WWE being petty about TNT getting back in the wrestling business. Otherwise, this massive, futuristic stadium would be a perfect WrestleMania host.
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA - Stadium Profile: One of the most famous stadiums in sports, the Superdome (brother) opened in 1975, though it is currently undergoing a massive renovation. It seats 73,208 and has hosted seven Super Bowls (scheduled for #8 in 2025), two WrestleManias, five Final Fours, and is the annual home of the Sugar Bowl.
- City Profile: New Orleans is the 45th biggest metro area in the US, though it's become a cultural hub. WrestleMania 34 was the last PPV hosted in the city.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: High. WWE has hosted here twice before, and a massive renovation will continue to make it an attractive target.
MetLife Stadium, New York, NY (located in East Rutherford, NJ)
- Stadium Profile: Located across the river from the heart of New York City, MetLife Stadium opened in 2010 as home of both the Giants and Jets and seats 82,500. Its price tag of $1.6 billion made it at the time the most expensive stadium in the US. It's hosted two WrestleManias (29 and 35) and is the only open-air northern city to host the Super Bowl.
- City Profile: What else is there to say about New York? It's the largest metro area by far, it's a massive cultural hub, and in wrestling context has hosted many of wrestling's most memorable events including six WrestleManias.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Medium to high. NYC always has to be on the list when hosting large events, and given WWE has been to MetLife twice, you'd have to think they're willing to go again. The massive downside is the intense difficulty some fans had with leaving the stadium, although that's something that can be remedied with a little better planning.
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN - Stadium Profile: Opened in 1999 to house the newly-christened Tennessee Titans, Nissan Stadium seats 69,143 and is also host to the annual Music City Bowl. It will be the centerpiece of a Nashville street circuit coming to the IndyCar calendar in 2021.
- City Profile: Nashville is the 36th largest metro area in the US. Nashville last hosted 2014 Night of Champions, although a house show under the name "Smackville" was aired on the WWE Network in 2019.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. I don't want to say zero, but this is as close to zero as it gets. Memphis is by far the more popular wrestling destination in the state, but it doesn't have a stadium capable of hosting a modern 'Mania.
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX - Stadium Profile: Built in 2002 to house the expansion Houston Texans, the Astrodome's spiritual successor houses 72,220. It's hosted two Super Bowls, two Final Fours, and is also on the schedule to host another Final Four and a College Football National Championship. NRG, then Reliant Stadium, hosted WrestleMania XXV.
- City Profile: Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the US. In addition to XXV, the Astrodome - despite no longer having any tenants - hosted WrestleMania X-Seven, often regarded as the best WrestleMania (and possibly the best WWE PPV ever). Houston has hosted numerous PPVs, including the 2020 Royal Rumble at Minute Maid Park and several other Big 4s.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. Though the Toyota Center is a common PPV host, Dallas seems to be the preferred destination in the state for WrestleMania. Still, NRG holds its weight, and perhaps it'll get another WrestleMania down the line.
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH - Stadium Profile: Like many cookie-cutters of the 70s, Riverfront Stadium was replaced by two stadiums; Paul Brown, opened in 2000, was the first, and it seats 65,515. An odd quirk in the contract with the city states that Cincinnati must pay for anything that 10 other NFL stadiums have, including holographic replays.
- City Profile: Cincinnati is the 30th biggest metro area in the US. As it is not home to an NBA or NHL team, the outdated US Bank Arena hasn't hosted much for WWE, only 2006 Cyber Sunday and 2018 Starrcade (a rebranded house show).
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. As highly of Moxley speaks of it, Cincinnati isn't a wrestling hub by any stretch, nor is it a big enough market to justify a high-profile event.
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL - Stadium Profile: Opened in 1998, this stadium seats 65,890 and has been home to the Outback Bowl, two Super Bowls (it'll host its third later this month), and the 2017 College Football National Championship. Its most prominent feature is a giant pirate ship that fires its cannons when the home Buccaneers score.
- City Profile: Tampa is the 18th largest metro area in the US. It hosted a few Big 4s decades ago, but prior to COVID last hosted 2014 Battleground. Sister city St. Petersburg will end up hosting several upcoming PPVs as it is the second home of the WWE Thunderdome.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Confirmed, as it will host WrestleMania later this year as a make-good for the Mania scrapped last year due to COVID-19. I'll admit that I was surprised to see Tampa on the schedule, and I can't imagine it'll come back after this year.
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA - Stadium Profile: LA residents, I feel bad that you're on the hook for the $5 billion price tag of this megaplex that houses the Rams and Chargers. Opened last fall, it seats 70,420 on game day but can be expanded to over 100,000. It will also be the epicenter of the 2028 Summer Olympics and will likely be a major part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It also has next year's Super Bowl and 2023's College Football National Championship on its radar. Incidentally, it has yet to host fans.
- City Profile: Los Angeles is the 2nd biggest metro area in the US. It's been home to numerous Big 4s including 3 WrestleManias (a fourth if you count nearby Anaheim) and was the regular host of SummerSlam for years.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Confirmed, as it is the host of WrestleMania 39 (pushed back from 37, presumably to allow California ample time to recover from COVID-19). It was intentionally over-built for high-profile events like WrestleMania, and I'm confident they will be back for many more.
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL - Stadium Profile: One of the classic sports venues, Soldier Field was built in 1924 but didn't host the Bears until 1971. A National Historic Landmark until 2002, it was delisted to allow the seating bowl to be gutted and rebuilt. Its signature Roman columns now reside at the stadium's gate.
- City Profile: Chicago is the 3rd biggest metro area in the US. It's a popular site of Big 4s, but it's hosted just two WrestleManias, both in arenas (2 and 22). It most recently hosted 2019 Survivor Series. Most WWE shows are held not in the United Center but instead at the Allstate Arena in nearby Rosemont.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. I have to say I'm surprised Chicago's not hosted WrestleMania in so long given how raucous its crowds are and given Chicago's giant market. However, Soldier Field is not the most advanced stadium in the world, and WWE seems to like warmer buildings.
State Farm Stadium, Phoenix, AZ - Stadium Profile: At the time of its opening in 2006, State Farm was perhaps the highest-tech stadium ever built. It notably features not just a retractable roof but a retractable field, allowing its Bermuda grass to get some sunlight. It's also hosted a Super Bowl, 3 College Football National Championships, and a Final Four, with another Super Bowl and Final Four coming in the next few years.
- City Profile: Phoenix is the 10th biggest metro area in the US. Phoenix's first PPV was 2003 SummerSlam and it's hosted many since, including WrestleMania XXVI and most recently the 2019 Royal Rumble at Chase Field.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. You'd think if WWE were headed back to Glendale, it would've done so by now. Once the most high-tech stadium in America, its successes have since been duplicated by countless others.
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL - Stadium Profile: Do I really have to do this one? Jacksonville Municipal Stadium was built in the 1930s, but it was overhauled in 1995 to welcome the expansion Jacksonville Jaguars, who are owned by the Khan family - the same family that owns AEW. It's also hosted Super Bowl XXXIX.
- City Profile: Jacksonville is the 40th biggest metro area in the US. Without a NBA or NHL team, it's hosted just one PPV: 2007 One Night Stand.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None, as long as AEW is around.
US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN - Stadium Profile: Built in 2016 as a replacement to the Metrodome and seating 66,655, US Bank's distinct exterior was built to resemble a viking ship. In its short life so far, it's already hosted a Super Bowl and a Final Four.
- City Profile: Minneapolis is the 16th biggest metro area in the US. Minneapolis hosted 1999 SummerSlam andlast hosted 2019 TLC. Surprisingly, the Metrodome never hosted WrestleMania.
- Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Medium to high. US Bank Stadium is a technological marvel, but Minneapolis is far from the most attractive location.
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Official r/NFL Week 11 Power Rankings
Welcome to the week 11 Official NFL Power Rankings! It was an eventful weekend, all that fans (of most teams) could reasonably ask for. Whose top 15 are upside down? Is any team more PFF than substance? Happy 2 million, Discuss!
31/32 reporting # | | Team | Δ | Record | Comment |
1. | | Steelers | +1 | 10-0 | Going into Thanksgiving after a solid win against the hopeless Jaguars, if the Steelers win vs the Ravens, they're in. That's right, if they beat Baltimore, the Steelers clinch a playoff spot by Week 11. Meanwhile, the Ravens know their back is against the wall after losing a tough one against the Titans and being outside of the cutoff line for the postseason. A loss against the Steelers takes their playoff odds down to 50-50, while a hot Browns team beating the same reeling Jaguars team brings their playoff chances to 75%. Expect the Ravens take their frustrations out on the Steelers in what will be both teams biggest test this season. The Ravens are desperate now and that makes them even more dangerous. Even more dangerous if they have the beerbug. If the game is postponed, disregard all of this. |
2. | | Chiefs | -1 | 9-1 | The Chiefs have some soul searching to do on defense after another abysmal performance against the Raiders. Unlike the first matchup against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense was able to bail out poor performances from the defense and special teams this time thanks to the usual suspects on offense. Travis Kelce continued his otherworldly year. Tyreek Hill was as great as always. Patrick Mahomes made a game-winning drive with only 1:43 look way too easy. Even if the Chiefs defense has off days the Chiefs are always going to be competitive due to those 3 guys. They might have to lean on them, even more, when the Chiefs go to Tampa Bay next week. |
3. | | Saints | +1 | 8-2 | |
4. | | Rams | +6 | 7-3 | Jordan Fuller is the superior 199th pick. |
5. | | Packers | -2 | 7-3 | "MVS giveth, MVS taketh away" |
6. | | Colts | +7 | 7-3 | The Colts drive to close the game after stopping the Packers on a late 4th and 1 was the most poorly executed drive this ranker has ever seen. It's a testament to this team's heart and talent that they still pulled out a W after that debacle. Sunday's game was one of the biggest in recent Indy football and the Colts look to surge into the back stretch of the season. |
7. | | Seahawks | +5 | 7-3 | The Seahawks defense won the game on a Carlos Dunlap sack on a three man rush against Kyler Murray. This team is provocative.... gets the people goin. And the fans are here for it (RIP blood pressure). A long break between Thursday night and the game Monday night should mean the returns of Chris Carson, Shaquil Griffin, and Ethan Pocic. After a bit of a slump, the Seahawks next 4 opponents consist of the NFC East (minus the Cowboys) and the Jets. It's all comin' together, baby. |
8. | | Bills | -- | 7-3 | The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all lost this week, which is about as good of a bye week as the Bills can ask for. This has been a very weird season with a lot of flukey wins and losses. Despite losing to them (and getting their teeth kicked in by one), it’s hard to say the Bills are objectively worse than Arizona or Tennessee. A Hail Mary ended one, and there was a whole string of strange, confusing events leading up to the other that made it a tough game to prepare for. This isn’t to say Buffalo didn’t deserve these losses, but in such an up-and-down year around the whole league, 7-3 feels pretty damn good. Now, it’s time to make the final push for the division. |
9. | | Buccaneers | -4 | 7-4 | He was excessively loyal to his coordinators. No matter their follies, no matter the incompetence on full display, and no matter the need for change, he insisted they continue in their duties. He refused to step in to call plays until it was too late, and by that point, the writing was already on the wall for his job. This of course references former Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The parallels are there in the present, and after last night's Rams game (which included a rollout from Tom Cement Shoes Brady), OC Byron Leftwich has little confidence from Bucs fans. They better wake up, because Patrick Mahomes is next. |
10. | | Titans | +4 | 7-3 | The Titans were able to once again slow the Ravens offense enough to keep pace through the first three quarters and set up an eleven-point fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. In overtime, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to score a second walk off touchdown in the same season. |
11. | | Ravens | -5 | 6-4 | This ranker would opt to write a blurb, but Greg Roman forced him to write a message to Hollywood instead. Can the Steelers be beaten without a DL? What about with two running backs on the COVID list? Asking for a friend. |
12. | | Cardinals | -5 | 6-4 | Leading the league in penalties (now 9 more than the next most penalized team) was bound to factor into a loss at some point. The offensive line also had their worst game of the season as Seattle's pass defense looked elite. Hopefully the teak used the extended time to work on some things and Murray's shoulder had enough time to heal. Sunday's game against the up and down Patriots will be absolutely critical. |
13. | | Raiders | -- | 6-4 | Bad officiating, bad defense, and scoring 30+ points and losing. Sunday night was exactly what you expect when you watch a Raiders game. The bright side for Raiders fans, they dominated KC on the road and barely scraped out a win after coming off a bye in Vegas. The Raiders can beat any team in the league, unfortunately their defense makes it so any team can beat them as well. |
14. | | Browns | +1 | 7-3 | The Browns are just two wins away from the first winning season since 2007 and third winning season in TWENTY YEARS. The Browns will face the struggling Jaguars next week. |
15. | | Dolphins | -6 | 6-4 | After a few weeks of glorious hope, Dolphins fans are welcomed back to the standard mood. Though the team's future still looks bright, this game was a hard reminder that the team is not yet all the way complete, and still has some glaring holes. Now the Dolphins travel to the winless Jets to see if they pull off the easy win, or if the long history of odd games in this rivalry continues. |
16. | | Bears | +2 | 5-5 | The bye week featured the most watchable performance from the Bears' offense all season. |
17. | | Panthers | +3 | 4-7 | The first shutout in five years was exactly what P.J. "Matty Ice" Walker and his two end zone interceptions needed. Even if this game was somehow closer than the end result, the defense really stepped up. A perfect 52 yard bomb to DJ Moore deserves specific recognition, as well as Brian Burns' overall game film. |
18. | | 49ers | +1 | 4-6 | Bye Week- Hopefully it allows enough time to get players off the Covid list. |
19. | | Vikings | -3 | 4-6 | Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing touchdowns, Adam Thielen leads the league in receiving touchdowns, Justin Jefferson is on pace to break Randy Moss's rookie receiving record, Kirk Cousins ranks 6th in PFF grade... and yet none of it matters because half of the Vikings' defense is on IR. |
20. | | Patriots | -3 | 4-6 | Pass protection and defensive secondary struggled. Run game disappeared in the second half. lost Rex. Not Good! |
21. | | Broncos | +4 | 4-6 | Tua learned a very important lesson on Sunday. No matter how good your team is, no matter how hapless the Broncos appear to be, the power of Mile High bullshit will break you. Despite having an awful start after game after game of awful offensive play, the Broncos strung together just enough yardage to complement an amazing defensive performance to squeak out a win. Ultimately meaningless except for one point — Vic Fangio has now won as many games as Vance Joseph. |
22. | | Chargers | +1 | 3-7 | This game had all of the hallmarks of Chargers football: inconsistent and mistake-prone offense, a defense that only lasts 30 minutes, and incompetent special teams play. However, the Chargers hung on to win the game, probably because the other team was the Jets. Keenan Allen had a career day, as his 16 receptions in a game is a franchise record. The Herbert-Allen connection continues to grow stronger and will hopefully be a focal point of the offense for years to come. The Chargers will don the navy unis again in a cross-country tilt against the Bills next week. |
23. | | Falcons | -1 | 3-7 | Thank you @Saints for the opportunity to realize a top ten draft/pick. And thank you to the fans and the city of Atlanta for putting up with the Falcons... |
24. | | Texans | +4 | 3-7 | Every win against the Pats feels like a gift, even when they're as garbage as they are this year. Seeing Bill Belichick scowl at his team's loss never fails to brighten the spirits of all other football fans. |
25. | | Lions | -4 | 4-6 | The offense was actually terrible. This Lions team is a shell of the offensive strength it had last year. After being shut out by an XFL QB, Patricia's seat must be scorching. Technically still in the playoff hunt, but unless the Lions blowout the Texans on thanksgiving.... don't count on it. |
26. | | Giants | +1 | 3-7 | If you're going to have a Covid outbreak you might as well do it on your bye week. Here's hoping everyone makes a quick recovery and limits the spread to family members. The NFC East now has an entire division of 3-win teams, which means this dumpster fire of a division is more up for grabs than it's been all year. Big Blue heads to Cincinnati to take on the Burrow-less Bengals next. |
27. | | Washington FT | +2 | 3-7 | And here we are. Come Thanksgiving, The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will battle it out for 1st place in the NFC LEAST. The winner standing tall at checks notes 4-7... This division is a toss up and we're really looking at a 5-11 or 6-10 team hosting a wildcard playoff game. |
28. | | Eagles | -2 | 3-6-1 | Real talk. Carson Wentz is among the worst, if not the absolute worst, starting quarterback currently in the NFL. Doug Pederson's magic from the 2017 season is dead and buried in a 50 foot deep hole in the Vet graveyard. Jason Peters is the worst overall player in the entire league. It is time for Doug to give up playcalling to someone with an iota of common sense. It is time to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, if only to keep Wentz healthy for next season. It is time for Eagles' fans to accept the fact that being 1st in a division while 3-6-1 is not a "positive takeaway." |
29. | | Cowboys | +1 | 3-7 | Winners? For the first time in a while, Cowboys fans feel hope. |
30. | | Bengals | -6 | 2-7-1 | The Bengals were never going to make the playoffs in 2020, they only had one goal for a successful season, keep Joe Burrow healthy. The front office and coaching staff failed to do that. Because Mike Brown won't step down or move aside, the changes need to start with Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, Head Coach Zac Taylor, Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, and offensive line coach Jim Turner. All four have contributed towards the catastrophic failure that is the Bengals in 2020 and need to be let go. For the remainder of the season the only goal is to land a top three pick and draft Penei Sewell. |
31. | | Jaguars | -- | 1-9 | It was not a trap game. It was, however, Shad Khan's 100th loss since buying the Jaguars. That doesn't count for much, but... no. No it's all just terrible. Send help. |
32. | | Jets | -- | 0-10 | The Jets have become the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention, considerably hurting their chances at making the playoffs. |
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Biggest Over and Underperformers of the 2020 NFL Season
Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)
The Dolphins are the story of the season, having essentially put a rebuild in motion in record time. Miami, which was projected to go winless just last season, finished its 2019 campaign strong by denying New England a first round bye, took a quarterback in Tua, then handed him the reins in Week 8. Flores's no name defense is one of the top units in the league, with Xavien Howard leading the league in interceptions, and they control their own playoff destiny -- Win at Buffalo and they're in. It's a lot earlier than anyone expected them to be in contention, even if they have the lowest ceiling of the AFC's five ten-win teams entering Week 17.
Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)
You can't totally blame Dallas for their woes given Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. The team has taken its sweet time finding its groove under Andy Dalton, looking totally lost without Dak putting up record numbers on offense in the first several weeks. Mike McCarthy has also made some puzzling decisions, such as the fake punt against Washington where a receiver ran twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th and long deep within their own territory. Despite all that, they still have a chance to win a historically terrible NFC East with a win vs the Giants and a Philadelphia win against a quarterback-challenged Washington Football Team.
Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)
Don't get me wrong. The Chargers' season is terrible and Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. But Herbert was been the biggest surprise of the 2020 NFL draft, being third off the board, and he is the reason this team has six wins. He was outplaying first overall pick Joe Burrow even before the latter's season-ending injury, passing Andrew Luck's total touchdown record, and looks damn comfortable doing it. He was thrown right into the fire, without first team reps in Week 2, and took the defending champion Chiefs to overtime. Outside of a 45-0 dismantling by the Patriots on special teams, Herbert and his Chargers have only lost one game by more than 1 score. Denver and Las Vegas better watch out - there are two incredible signal callers in the AFC West now.
Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)
New England lost its star quarterback of twenty years this season and it looked like its offense regressed by forty. Former MVP Cam Newton has twice as many picks as he does passing touchdowns and he only has ten interceptions. It's not unusual to tune in to a Patriots game and see a statline of less than 75 yards passing. It's a testament that Bill Belichick has dragged this roster to a 6-9 record, but the Patriots' reign of terror in the AFC East - 19 consecutive winning seasons, 11 consecutive division titles, 8 consecutive AFC championship appearances - is over, and a 38-9 pantsing by Josh Allen and crew on Monday confirmed it.
Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)
The Dolphins are in playoff contention and may walk into the off-season with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. How? Bill O'Brien, that's how. The former Texan dictator sent Miami two first round picks for the rights to sign Laremy Tunsil to a back-breaking deal, before he was fired after starting 0-4. Houston is 4-11, worse than all of the NFC East, JJ Watt is ripping into his teammates for not playing hard enough, and unlike every other team, their fans have no high draft picks for consolation. Thanks BoB.
Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)
Lock had much hype going into the off-season by going 4-1 as a starter on a team that finished 7-9 last year, but he hasn't proven that he is the QB1 Elway is looking for. Yes, Denver had that terrible game where a practice squad WR started at QB, and Brett Rypien did come in relief of Lock early in the season, but in a division where Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are some of the league's best signal callers, and Derek Carr is a plenty serviceable quarterback, there isn't much hope this Denver offense can come anywhere close to the heights it reached with Manning under center.
Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)
Aaron Rodgers is back in MVP form and the Packers are looking like Super Bowl favorites. Rodgers rediscovered the fun in football during the off-season, one in which his front office traded up to select his potential replacement. He has 44 touchdowns to just 5 picks, and Green Bay looks to be in position to make sure the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through snowy Lambeau Field. And why is that so important? In a crucial test of their defense against Tennessee, who have a snowplow named Derrick Henry at running back, the Packers dismantled the Titans at home, holding the league's previously top ranked offense to 14 points, all while Rodgers locked up his case for league MVP by throwing for four touchdowns.
Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)
Even if the Bucs lose to the Falcons this week, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady will still surpass their betting odds and return this franchise to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But Arians and Brady have constantly squabbled over the course of the season, and it's clear Arians is no Belichick. The Tampa OL cannot give the 43 year old Brady the time he needs to execute all the dropbacks in Arians's vertical scheme, and it's limited this Buccaneers offense against blitz heavy teams like the Saints and Giants. When it's working, it's beautiful, like this week's 47-7 spanking of the Lions, but Arians needs to adjust his game plan against better teams, as proven in back to back losses against the Rams and Chiefs.
Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)
The Niners are out of the playoffs following a Super Bowl run. How is Shanahan overperforming? He has his squad competing despite a historical bout of injury luck, losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, D Linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to season ending injuries, and RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle were out significant playing time throughout the season. On top of that, COVID regulations made the Niners homeless, sending them to Arizona to close the regular season. But the Niners are competitive week in and week out, having embarrassed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at their own home despite Robbie Gould missing three field goals.
Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)
The Rams' running game is having a rebound year after cutting Todd Gurley, with breakout stars Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Sean McVay's new D coordinator has the Rams defense rolling as a top 10 unit. But Jared Goff has now lost two straight, leads the league in turnovers since the 2019 season, and they would probably be out of the playoffs if they hadn't been scheduled to play the NFC East this year and swept them. Goff looked especially poor in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets, and actual human beings are now debating whether John Wolford, a man without any NFL starts to his name and is the backup on the depth chart for a reason, might be the better quarterback anyway after Goff broke his thumb in a demoralizing loss to the Seahawks that threatens to knock them out of the postseason entirely.
Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)
The Bills are division champions for the first time in 25 years, and Allen has emerged as a dark horse MVP candidate in his third year. He has legitimately matured as a signal caller, having been drafted with all the talent in the world locked behind some raw mechanics. Credit to the Buffalo staff, who have managed to perform the rare feat of fixing a quarterback's accuracy longer after most deemed feasible, and have surrounded him with the weapons he needs to succeed. Stefon Diggs was a plug-and-play fit into OC Brian Daboll's offense, while Cole Beasley is quietly having a monster year. If they can give him a true running game, this Buffalo team will be an AFC playoff contender for years to come.
Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)
Adam Gase has been bailed out from being remembered as part of an exclusive group of coaches who led a winless campaign, but he remains a terrible head coach who no team should ever want. The Jets squad he fielded had Sam Darnold regressing in his third year, and he steadfastly refused to make adjustments to make his team's life easier. And he had the audacity to make his fans suffer thirteen straight losses without even giving them the number one overall pick, which would have gifted them one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever come out of college.
Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)
While the Browns have technically not clinched a playoff berth yet in a historically deep AFC wild card scramble, Kevin Stefanski has his Browns rolling and playing spectacular ball, including in a game-of-the-year candidate 47-42 loss at Baltimore, and they are in control of their own playoff destiny. Their loss to the Jets last week was demoralizing, but Baker Mayfield also had no receivers after they were ruled out because of contract tracing protocols. This weekend, the Browns are in a win-and-in scenario against a Steelers team with nothing to play for, so barring another COVID-related debacle or a very Browns-esque collapse, they are playoff-bound for the first time since 2002.
Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)
Chicago remains in control of their playoff destiny with a win-and-in scenario at Soldier Field this weekend, but it's tough to argue Nick Foles hasn't underperformed this season. He was brought in to light a fire under Trubisky's bum, which, while it has certainly happened the last few weeks and has brought rumors of a contract extension for the latter, might also have been come from Mitch playing against some terrible defenses. More concerningly for Foles, he was named starter and led the Bears to the cusp of playoff elimination after losing six straight amidst a 5-1 start, playing such poor ball that head coach Matt Nagy surrendered playcalling duties to his offensive coordinator. He twice threw for no touchdowns in a six-week span before he lost his job to Trubisky after an injury.
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Colts Playoff Breakdown: Standings, Odds, and Scenarios
There are still 3 meaningful games to be played this week, but I didn't feel like waiting to make this post.
This post is fully updated through Week 13. Contents:
- AFC Standings
- This Week's Playoff Probability
- Who to Root For
- How Colts Results Affect Playoff Odds
- Paths to an AFC South Title
- Paths to a Wild-Card Spot
- Tiebreaker Explanation
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
AFC Standings
- 1) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
- Best: 1 Worst: 8
- Playoff Odds: >99%
- AFC North Odds: 95%
- 2) Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) - CLINCHED PLAYOFFS
- Best: 1 Worst: 6
- AFC West Odds: >99%
- 3) Buffalo Bills (9-3)
- Best: 1 Worst: 11
- Playoff Odds: 96%
- AFC East Odds: 91%
- 4) Tennessee Titans (8-4)
- Best: 1 Worst: 13
- Playoff Odds: 87%
- AFC South Odds: 62%
- 5) Cleveland Browns (9-3)
- Best: 1 Worst: 11
- Playoff Odds: 91%
- AFC North Odds: 5%
- 6) Miami Dolphins (8-4)
- Best: 1 Worst: 12
- Playoff Odds: 40%
- AFC East Odds: 7%
- 7) Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
- Best: 1 Worst: 12
- Playoff Odds: 69%
- AFC South Odds: 38%
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- 8) Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)
- Best: 1 Worst: 13
- Playoff Odds: 45%
- AFC West Odds: <1%
- 9) Baltimore Ravens (7-5) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION
- Best: 5 Worst: 14
- Playoff Odds: 59%
- 10) New England Patriots (6-6)
- Best: 3 Worst: 14
- Playoff Odds: 13%
- AFC East Odds: 2%
- 11) Denver Broncos (4-8) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION
- Best: 7 Worst: 15
- Playoff Odds: <1%
- 12) Houston Texans (4-8)
- Best: 4 Worst: 16
- Playoff Odds: <1%
- AFC South Odds: <1%
- 13) Los Angeles Chargers (3-9) - OUT
- 14) Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1) - OUT
- 15) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11) - OUT
- 16) New York Jets (0-12) - OUT
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Current Tiebreakers
- Steelers beat Chiefs by conference record.
- Titans beat Colts by division record.
- Dolphins beat Colts by conference record.
- Raiders beat Ravens by conference record.
- Broncos beat Texans by conference record.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
This Week's Playoff Probability
Current - 69% Playoff Odds
- 38% Division Odds
Beat Las Vegas - 88% Playoff Odds (+19)
- 46% Division Odds (+8)
Lose to Las Vegas - 46% Playoff Odds (-23)
- 28% Division Odds (-9)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Who to Root For
Tennessee Loses to Jacksonville - 82% Playoff Odds (+12)
- 72% Division Odds (+34)
Miami Loses to Kansas City Baltimore Loses to Cleveland These are the only games this week that positively affect the Colts' playoff odds by more than 1%. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
How Colts Results Affect Playoff Odds
4-0
Clinch Playoffs
- 84% Division Probability
- <1% 1-Seed Probability
3-1
Lose to Las Vegas: - 96% Playoff Probability
- 55% Division Probability
Lose to Pittsburgh or Jacksonville: - 99% Playoff Probability
- 44% Division Probability
Lose to Houston: - 99% Playoff Probability
- 47% Division Probability (I have no clue how this makes any sense.)
2-2
Beat Las Vegas: - 60-61% Playoff Probability
- 12-14% Division Probability
Beat Houston and Jacksonville: - 55% Playoff Probability
- 37% Division Probability
Beat Houston and Pittsburgh: - 38% Playoff Probability
- 14% Division Probability
1-3
Beat Las Vegas - 7% Playoff Probability
- 2% Division Probability
Beat Houston or Jacksonville: - 7-8% Playoff Probability
- 6-7% Division Probability
Beat Pittsburgh: - 2% Playoff Probability
- 2% Division Probability
0-4
Eliminated
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Paths to an AFC South Title: Titans vs Colts
If 1 team has a better record than the other in the last 4 games, that team wins the division.
Each Team Goes 4-0
- The Titans win the division (Tiebreaker: Division Record)
Each Team Goes 3-1
- If the Colts loss is to the Texans or Jaguars, the Titans win the division (Tiebreaker: Division Record).
- If the Titans loss is to the Lions or Packers, the Titans win the division (Tiebreaker: Division Record).
- If the Titans loss is to Texans or Jaguars, and the Colts loss is to Steelers, the Titans win the division (Tiebreaker: Strength of Victory).*
- If the Titans loss is to Texans or Jaguars, and the Colts loss is to the Raiders, the Colts win the division (Tiebreaker: Common Games). - This is the only scenario where the Colts win the division if each team goes 3-1.
Each Team Goes 2-2
- If the Titans and Colts win the same amount of division games, or the Titans win more, the Titans win the division.
- If the Colts win both division games and the Titans lose 1 or both, the Colts win the division.
- If the Colts go 1-1 in the division, and the Titans go 0-2: the Colts win the division if they beat the Steelers, and the Titans win the division if the Colts beat the Raiders.
*There is still a small chance, less than 1%, that the Colts win strength of victory.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Paths to a Wild-Card Spot
4-0
Note: The Colts control their own destiny for the playoffs, but not for the division or for a seed higher than 7.
3-1 and Beat Las Vegas
1 of these things must happen:
- Baltimore loses at least 1 game
- Miami loses at least 2 games
- Cleveland loses at least 3 games
3-1 and Lose to Las Vegas
2 of these things must happen:
- Baltimore loses at least 1 game
- Miami loses at least 2 games
- Cleveland loses at least 3 games
- Las Vegas loses at least 1 other game
2-2 and Beat Las Vegas
2 of these things must happen:
- New England loses at least 1 game
- Baltimore loses at least 2 games
- Miami loses at least 3 games
- Cleveland loses all 4 games
- Buffalo loses all 4 games
2-2 and Lose to Las Vegas
3 of these things must happen:
- New England loses at least 1 game
- Baltimore loses at least 2 games
- Las Vegas loses at least 2 games (They already win week 14)
- Miami loses at least 3 games
- Cleveland loses all 4 games
- Buffalo loses all 4 games
1-3 and Beat Las Vegas
3 of these things must happen:
- Las Vegas loses at least 1 other game
- New England loses at least 2 games
- Baltimore loses at least 3 games
- Miami loses all 4 games
1-3 and Lose to Las Vegas
All of these must happen:
- Las Vegas loses at least 1 other game
- New England loses at least 2 games
- Baltimore loses at least 3 games
- Miami loses all 4 games
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Tiebreaker Explanation (Every Possible Colts 2-Way Tie)
Tennessee (Divisional Tiebreak) - Head-to-Head: Guaranteed Tie 1-1
- Division Record: Currently, the Titans are 3-1 and the Colts 2-2 in the division.
- Common Games: If Colts lost to Raiders, Colts win. If Colts beat Raiders, it continues.
- Besides the matchups with each other, each team has 2 uncommon games. This means that it's better to have a worse record in these 2 games than your opponent. This doesn't mean the Colts should want to lose this week, because adding a win would cause the team to win the tiebreaker by straight-up record.
- Conference Record: If Titans lose to Packers or Lions, Titans win. If not, it continues.
- Strength of Victory: Titans .458, Colts .411
- Strength of Schedule: Titans .517, Colts .448
- 5 Other Tiebreakers
- Coin Flip
Pittsburgh - Head-to-Head: Winner of Week 16 Game @ Steelers
- The only way to proceed is if the game is a tie.
- Conference Record: Steelers Win
- It's impossible for the Colts to match the Steelers' conference record because in doing so, they would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Kansas City - Head-to-Head: Does Not Apply
- Conference Record: Chiefs Win
- The worst KC can do is 9-3 while the best the Colts can do is 8-4.
Buffalo - Head-to-Head: Does Not Apply
- Conference Record: Bills Win
- The Bills have lost 1 NFC game, and the Colts are 4-0.
- Since the Colts are 4-0 in the NFC, they will have the worst possible conference record for their record. This means that any team that has lost 1 NFC game will beat the Colts by conference record.
Cleveland Miami - Head-to-Head: Does Not Apply
- Conference Record: Dolphins Win
- The Dolphins have lost 1 NFC game, and the Colts are 4-0.
Las Vegas - Head-to-Head: Winner of Week 14 Game @ Raiders
- The only way to proceed is if the game is a tie.
- Conference Record: Raiders Win
- The Raiders have lost 1 NFC game, and the Colts are 4-0.
Baltimore New England - Head-to-Head: Does Not Apply
- Conference Record: Patriots Win
- The Patriots have lost 2 NFC games, and the Colts are 4-0.
Denver - Head-to-Head: Does Not Apply
- Conference Record: Broncos Win
- The Broncos have lost 3 NFC games, and the Colts are 4-0.
Houston - Head-to-Head: Dependent on Week 15 Game @ Indianapolis
- The only way to proceed is if the Texans win.
- Division Record: Currently Tied at 2-2
- Since the Texans beat the Colts to get here, the only way to proceed is if the Colts beat the Jaguars and the Texans lose to the Titans.
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NFL - Alternative Loser Names
Yesterday my team had a bad day. Whenever they don't play well, we call them the Seachickens. As part if our healing, my family had some fun listing alternative loser names for all 32 teams.
Original - Loser:
Arizona Cardinals - Arizona Pigeons Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta Duckies Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore Crows Buffalo Bills - Buffalo Sauce Carolina Panthers - Caroilna Kittens Chicago Bears - Chicago Beards Cincinnati Bengals - Cincinnati Gingers Cleveland Browns - Cleveland Tan Dallas Cowboys - Dallas Jockies Denver Broncos - Denver Ponies Detroit Lions - Detroit Liars Green Bay Packers - Green Bay Cheez-its Houston Texans - Houston Whitney's Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Foals Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacsonville Calicos Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City Chefs Las Vegas Raiders - Las Vegas Villagers Los Angeles Chargers - Los Angeles Static Los Angeles Rams - Los Angeles Sheep Miami Dolphins - Miami Fish Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota Looters New England Patriots - New England Patties New Orleans Saints - New Orleans Taints New York Giants - New York Smurfs New York Jets - New York Kites Philadelphia Eagles - Philadelphia Cheez Whiz Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh Stealers San Francisco 49ers - San Fransisco Onsies Seattle Seahawks - Seattle Seachickens Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tampa Bay Buckaroos Tennessee Titans - Tennessee Minions Washington Football Team - Washington Georges
What alternative names do you have for your team?
What new rivalries would you like. Personally, I'm looking forward to these primetime matchups:
The Georges vs The Whitneys The Cheez-Its vs The Cheez Whiz The Looters vs The Villagers The Taints vs The Beards The Jockies vs The Ponies The Kittens vs The Foals The Gingers vs The Tan The Chefs vs The Sauce
And the logos and Moscots!! Anybody up for designing a Seachicken? We have also have a place in AZ, damn flying rats!
If your team is still in it, may the odds be in your favor. If you're out, I find a healthy distraction helps.
submitted by AndThatIsAll to nfl [link] [comments]
Week 15 Preview: Playoff Probability, Scenarios, and Rooting Guide
Contents
- AFC Standings
- Playoff Probability
- Colts Scenarios
- Week 15 (Unnecessarily Long) Rooting Guide
- Tiebreakers
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ AFC Standings
1: Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) - CLINCHED AFC WEST - Best: 1 Worst: 3
- 94% First Round Bye Probability
2: Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) - CLINCHED PLAYOFFS - Best: 1 Worst: 6
- 98% AFC North Probability
- 5% First Round Bye Probability
3: Buffalo Bills (10-3) - Best: 1 Worst: 8
- >99% Playoff Probability
- 99% AFC East Probability
- <1% First Round Bye Probability
4: Tennessee Titans (9-4) - Best: 2 Worst: 10
- 94% Playoff Probability
- 60% AFC South Probability
Wins tiebreaker over Indianapolis by division record.
5: Cleveland Browns (9-4) - Best: 2 Worst: 10
- 87% Playoff Probability
- 2% AFC North Probability
Wins tiebreaker over Indianapolis by head-to-head record.
6: Indianapolis Colts (9-4) - Best: 2 Worst: 10
- 90% Playoff Probability
- 40% AFC South Probability
7: Miami Dolphins (8-5) - Best: 3 Worst: 11
- 25% Playoff Probability
- 1% AFC East Probability
Wins tiebreaker over Baltimore by conference record.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
8: Baltimore Ravens (8-5) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION - Best: 5 Worst: 11
- 88% Playoff Probability
9: Las Vegas Raiders (7-6) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION - Best: 5 Worst: 11
- 15% Playoff Probability
10: New England Patriots (6-7) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION - Best: 5 Worst: 13
- 2% Playoff Probability
11: Denver Broncos (5-8) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION - Best: 7 Worst: 14
- <1% Playoff Probability
12: Houston Texans (4-9) - OUT Wins tiebreaker over Los Angeles by strength of victory. 13: Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) - OUT 14: Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1) - OUT 15: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12) - OUT 16: New York Jets (0-13) - OUT _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Playoff Probability
Through Week 14
- 90% Playoff Odds
- 40% Division Odds
Colts Beat Houston
- 96% Playoff Odds (+6)
- 47% Division Odds (+7)
Colts Lose to Houston
- 68% Playoff Odds (-22)
- 14% Division Odds (-26)
Tennessee Loses to Detroit
- 92% Playoff Odds (+2)
- 75% Division Odds (+35)
Tennessee Beats Detroit
- 89% Playoff Odds (-1)
- 34% Division Odds (-6)
Miami Loses to New England
Miami Beats New England
No other game effects the Colts odds by more than 1%. However, remember that percentages are just fractions. Don't treat the +/- numbers as the actual value of each game. The Dolphins losing to the Patriots, and moving our odds from 90 to 95% is huge! It actually doubles our odds of making the playoffs (9/10 vs 19/20). This is why those numbers look like they do a lot less than, for example, the Titans losing to the Lions giving us a 35-point boost. The closer you are to 0 or 100, the easier it is to move the other direction.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Colts Scenarios
3-0
- Clinched Playoffs
- 77% Division Odds
- If Tennessee loses at least 1 game, the Colts win the division.
- If this happens and Buffalo loses at least 2 games, the Colts get the 2 or 3 seed.
- If this happens and the Steelers lose out (including vs Colts), the Colts get the 2 seed.
2-1
- 98% Playoff Odds
- 30% Division Odds; If loss is to Houston, 33% Division Odds (I have no clue why)
- To make the playoffs, ONE of the following must happen.
- Miami loses at least 1 game
- Baltimore loses at least 1 game
- Tennessee loses at least 2 games
- Cleveland loses at least 2 games
- To win the division, Tennessee must lose at least 2 games
1-2
- 59% Playoff Odds
- 4% Division Odds
- To make the playoffs, there are 2 paths
- Path A: TWO of the following must happen
- Las Vegas loses at least 1 game
- Miami loses at least 2 games
- Baltimore loses at least 2 games
- Cleveland loses all 3 games
- Path B: This one also guarantees a division win.
- Tennessee loses all 3 games.
0-3
- 9% Playoff Odds
- Cannot Win Division
- To make the playoffs, THREE of the following must happen.
- New England loses at least 1 game
- Las Vegas loses at least 2 games
- Miami loses all 3 games
- Baltimore loses all 3 games
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Week 15 Rooting Guide
Games are in reverse order of importance. If you don't want to waste your time, skip the first half.
Eagles @ Cardinals
Root For: Cardinals
Importance Rating: 1/100
Hmm, maybe the Eagles losing will help them pass the Texans in the tank race. Of course, the Dolphins own that pick, but they could be a team rival in the future, so we'd probably prefer them to draft lower if possible. Ironically, the Eagles winning could also hurt Miami in draft position for their normal first-round draft pick.
Bears @ Vikings
Root For: Bears
Importance Rating: 1/100
The Vikings have a slightly harder schedule for the last two, so I suppose they're more likely to lose these. They can try to pass up Denver, an AFC team, in the tank race.
Seahawks @ Football Team
Root For: Seahawks
Importance Rating: 1/100
The Colts and Jets (from Seahawks) will draft at around the same time as of now. If the Colts get out in the same round as Seattle, let's hope the latter has a better record so they get the Colts get a spot higher.
Panthers @ Packers
Root For: Packers
Importance Rating: 1/100
Strength of victory doesn't matter for the Colts this year. But if the Packers keep winning, that means they're better...which means the Colts are better since we beat them. Logic.
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Root For: Falcons
Importance Rating: 2/100
Fuck Tom Brady.
49ers @ Cowboys
Root For: 49ers
Importance Rating: 3/100
Hey Dak, do you see how bad the Cowboys are without you? They'll be 4-10 after this one. Maybe you should head to a team with a great defense, offensive line, and special teams, that is lacking an elite quarterback.
Chiefs @ Saints
Root For: Saints
Importance Rating: 7
The Chiefs will almost certainly lock up the bye in the coming weeks. Let's not give them extra time to rest before they play in the divisional round. There's a very good chance their opponent could be the Colts.
Steelers @ Bengals
Root For: Bengals
Importance Rating: 16
The Colts could still pass the Steelers. This could have implications in seeding the 1-4 teams, or the 5-7 teams.
Bills @ Broncos
Root For: Broncos
Importance Rating: 16
The Bills are only 1 game ahead of us, but they have clinched the tiebreaker.
Jets @ Rams
Root For: Rams
Importance Rating: 19
I don't usually like thinking about the next season when Indy is still in contention, but I'm really not feeling like I want to play Trevor Lawrence twice a year.
Chargers @ Raiders
Root For: Chargers
Importance Rating: 34
The Colts only care about the Raiders if they go 1-2 in the last 3. But it's better to be safe than sorry.
Browns @ Giants
Root For: Giants
Importance Rating: 45
Cleveland is now tied with us. They get the Jets after this, but face Pittsburgh in their regular season finale. They're a team we could pass in the standings realistically.
Jaguars @ Ravens
Root For: Jaguars
Importance Rating: 53
This would virtually end two possibilities: The Ravens getting a higher seed than the Colts, and the Jaguars drafting #1 overall.
Patriots @ Dolphins
Root For: Patriots
Importance Rating: 61
The Dolphins are the most important team in the wildcard race for us. They aren't as likely to pass us up as Baltimore. But we can afford one team passing us, and not two. Miami is just a game back, and owns the tiebreaker.
Lions @ Titans
Root For: Lions
Importance Rating: 64
This would be huge for the Colts' division chances. Even though it doesn't help as much for overall playoff chances as the Dolphins game, I think we're in a good enough spot that we can think about getting a home game in January.
Texans @ Colts
Root For: Colts
Importance Rating: 85
Leg 3 of this 5-game winning streak to end the season.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Tiebreakers
Head-to-Head
- Steelers: Tiebreaker likely decided by Week 16 matchup
- Browns: Colts LOSE tiebreaker due to Week 6 loss
- Raiders: Colts WIN tiebreaker due to Week 14 win
- Ravens: Colts LOSE tiebreaker due to Week 9 loss
Conference Record
The Colts are currently 5-4. The best they can do is 8-4. They can never win by conference record this season since the 4 NFC games all count as wins.
- Chiefs: Colts LOSE tiebreaker, as the worst KC can do is 10-2.
- Steelers: Colts LOSE tiebreaker (this is only relevant if the teams tie week 16), as the worst Pittsburgh can do is 8-3-1.
- Bills: Colts LOSE tiebreaker, as the Bills have lost an NFC game.
- Dolphins: Colts LOSE tiebreaker, as the Dolphins have lost an NFC game.
- Patriots: Colts LOSE tiebreaker, as the Patriots have lost an NFC game.
Strength of Victory
- Titans: Colts LOSE tiebreaker. Tennessee could also win by division record, a previous tiebreaker. If that is tied, common games is tied as well. The Titans are guaranteed to win SOV, as the team's in their 4 uncommon wins (Broncos, Jaguars, Bills, Ravens) are guaranteed to have a better combined record than Indy's 4 (Jets, Bengals, Raiders, Texans).
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ How would you rank these teams? 2020 Colts, 2018 Colts, 2014 Colts
submitted by Andy_and_Vic to Colts [link] [comments]
Colts Playoff Scenarios + Probability: Week 13
AFC PLAYOFF HUNT (538 PLAYOFF PROBABILITY)
- 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (>99%)
- 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs (>99%)
- 8-3 Tennessee Titans (97%) Head-to-Head Over Buffalo (Guaranteed)
- 8-3 Buffalo Bills (93%)
- 8-3 Cleveland Browns (79%)
- 7-4 Miami Dolphins (48%) Conference Record over Indianapolis (Guaranteed)
- 7-4 Indianapolis Colts (55%)
- 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders (45%) Conference Record over Baltimore (Very Likely)
- 6-5 Baltimore Ravens (68%)
- 5-6 New England Patriots (13%)
- 4-7 Denver Broncos (<1%) Conference Record over Houston (Currently)
- 4-7 Houston Texans (2%)
- 3-8 Los Angeles Chargers (<1%)
- 2-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals (<1%)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ COLTS PROBABILITY
- 55% Playoff Odds
- 13% Division Odds
- With Win @ Houston: 73% Playoff Odds
- With Loss @ Houston: 33% Playoff Odds
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MOST HELPFUL POSSIBLE WEEK 14 OUTCOMES
- Ravens lose vs. Cowboys (Odds Increase to 61%)
- Raiders to lose @ Jets (Odds Increase to 61%)
- Dolphins lose vs. Bengals (Odds Increase to 60%)
No other games can help the Colts by more than 1% playoff probability.
Interesting Note: The Browns / Titans game has almost no affect on Indy's playoff odds. Both results help them nearly equally. Personally, I'm rooting for Tennessee. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
TIEBREAKING SCENARIOS
- Tennessee: Will Likely Lose Tiebreaker (Division Record: Colts 1-2, Titans 3-1; If tied, Common Games)
- Buffalo: Will Lose Tiebreaker (Conference Record)
- Cleveland: Will Lose Tiebreaker (Head-to-Head)
- Las Vegas: Tiebreaker Likely Decided by Week 14 Game (Head-to-Head; if game is a tie, Vegas will win by Conference Record)
- Baltimore: Will Lose Tiebreaker (Head-to-Head)
- New England: Will Lose Tiebreaker (Conference Record)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
REMAINING SCHEDULE SCENARIOS
This doesn't have every scenario, just the best and worst cases, as well as some other likely or interesting ones.
5-0
4-1
- Beat Raiders and Jaguars: >99% (Best Case)
- Beat Raiders, lose to Jaguars: >99%
- Lose to Raiders: 99% (Worst Case)
3-2
- Lose to Steelers and vs. Texans: 76% (Best Case for Playoffs)
- Lose to Texans Twice: 75%
- Lose to Raiders and Steelers: 64%
- Lose to Raiders and Jaguars: 57% (Worst Case)
2-3
- Beat Raiders and vs. Texans: 18% (Best Case)
- Beat vs. Texans and Jaguars: 8%
- Win Any 2 Division Games: 3% Division Odds
- Win 1 or 0 Division Games: <1% Division Odds
- Lose to Raiders: 6-8%
- Beat @ Texans and Steelers: 6% (Worst Case)
1-4
- <1%
- Eliminated from Division Race
0-5
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MOST REALISTIC PATHS TO THE POSTSEASON
7 Seed
10-6:
- Colts Win 3 of the Last 5
- 3 of These 4 Things Happen
- Las Vegas Loses at Least 2 Games (9-7) OR loses to Indianapolis (This is only a scenario of the second thing on this list happens)
- @ Jets, vs Chargers, vs Dolphins, @ Broncos
- Miami Loses At Least 2 Games (9-7)
- vs. Bengals, vs Chiefs, vs Patriots, @ Bengals, @ Bills
- If the Dolphins go 10-6, Colts lose the tiebreaker by conference record. If the Dolphins and Raiders do so, the Colts would be last because of conference record.
- Baltimore Loses At Least 2 Games (9-7)
- vs Cowboys, @ Browns, vs Jaguars, vs Giants, @ Bengals
- New England Loses At Least 1 Game (9-7)
- @ Chargers, @ Rams, @ Dolphins, vs Bills, vs Jets
Note: The interesting about this is that the Raiders and Dolphins play Week 16. The Colts would be guaranteed to beat the Raiders if they lose, and very likely to beat the Dolphins if they lose. 11-5:
- Colts Win 4 of the Last 5
- 2 of These 3 Things Happen:
- Las Vegas Loses At Least 1 Game (10-6)
- Miami Loses At Least 2 Games (10-6)
- Baltimore Loses At Least 1 Game (10-6)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
6-Seed
Note: The 6-seed looks like it will be very beneficial this year, as the 7 will have to travel to either Kansas City or Pittsburgh in the wildcard round.
10-6:
- Colts Beat Raiders, Split Houston, Lose to Pittsburgh, Beat Jacksonville (10-6)
- Las Vegas Loses At Least 1 Other Game (9-7)
- Miami Loses At Least 3 Games (9-7)
- Baltimore Loses At Least 2 Games (9-7)
- New England Loses at Least 1 Game (9-7)
11-5:
- Colts Win 4 of the Last 5
- Las Vegas Loses At Least 1 Game (10-6)
- Miami Loses At Least 2 Games (10-6)
- Baltimore Loses At Least 1 Game (10-6)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5-Seed
11-5:
- Colts Win 4 of the Last 5
- Las Vegas Loses At Least 1 Game (10-6)
- Miami Loses At Least 2 Games (10-6)
- Baltimore Loses At Least 1 Game (10-6)
- Cleveland Loses At Least 3 Games (10-6)
- @ Titans, vs Ravens, @ Giants, @ Jets, vs Steelers
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Don't panic. We got this.
submitted by Andy_and_Vic to Colts [link] [comments]
Standings if NFL games this season only counted the SECOND half.
Rules: Only the second half points are counted. OT is not counted except if the teams are tied (e.g. in a 14-14 tie, the OT period would be used as a tiebreaker, essentially meaning the teams have to end both halves tied for OT to be counted). This is a follow-up to my previous post yesterday about first half records.
Team | Current Record | Hypothetical Record |
AFC East | | |
New England Patriots | 4-6 | 6-4 |
Miami Dolphins | 6-4 | 4-5-1 |
Buffalo Bills | 7-3 | 3-7 |
New York Jets | 0-10 | 2-8 |
AFC North | | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-0 | 8-2 |
Baltimore Ravens | 6-4 | 6-4 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 2-7-1 | 4-6 |
Cleveland Browns | 7-3 | 2-7-1 |
AFC South | | |
Indianapolis Colts | 7-3 | 7-3 |
Tennessee Titans | 7-3 | 5-5 |
Houston Texans | 3-7 | 4-5-1 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-9 | 4-6 |
AFC West | | |
Kansas City Chiefs | 9-1 | 8-2 |
Denver Broncos | 4-6 | 5-5 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 6-4 | 5-5 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 3-7 | 4-6 |
NFC East | | |
Washington | 4-7 | 8-3 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 3-6-1 | 5-5 |
Dallas Cowboys | 3-8 | 4-7 |
New York Giants | 3-7 | 3-7 |
NFC North | | |
Chicago Bears | 5-5 | 6-3-1 |
Minnesota Vikings | 4-6 | 5-5 |
Detroit Lions | 4-7 | 3-8 |
Green Bay Packers | 7-3 | 2-8 |
NFC South | | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-4 | 7-2-2 |
New Orleans Saints | 8-2 | 5-5 |
Atlanta Falcons | 3-7 | 3-7 |
Carolina Panthers | 4-7 | 3-8 |
NFC West | | |
Los Angeles Rams | 7-3 | 9-0-1 |
Arizona Cardinals | 6-4 | 9-1 |
Seattle Seahawks | 7-3 | 5-4-1 |
San Francisco 49ers | 4-6 | 3-6-1 |
Notes:
- In the scenario where only the 1st half is played, the Bills would've lost to the Jets in their second meeting. In this scenario, the opposite occurs, and the Bills would've lost to the Jets in Week 1.
- In either scenario, the Jets would be 2-8, with their other first half victory being vs. NE, while their other 2nd half victory would be vs. LAC.
- New England is the favorite to win the AFC East for a twelfth consecutive season, and on the playoff hunt.
- Pittsburgh does not go undefeated if only either half is played. In both cases, it would have an upset loss -- in the former, vs. BoB's Texans, in this scenario, vs. Denver.
- Baltimore would start 5-0, before losing four of their last five beginning with a loss at Philadelphia. Similarly, Cincinnati would start 3-1, with a 3 game winning streak, before losing five of their last six.
- The AFC West isn't very interesting in this scenario, win/loss totals would only go up or down by 1 for each team. Broncos are on the playoff hunt however, with the sixth and seventh seeds currently going to 5-5 teams.
- Eagles would lose vs. Cincinnati but win at 49ers, vs. Ravens and Browns.
- Washington hangs in there! This team doesn't quit. It would lose to "good" teams: the Ravens, Browns and Rams, but it would also be undefeated in division play.
- My Packers would've lost their last seven consecutive games after starting 2-1 with a loss at Minnesota. (Oddly enough, Matt LaFleur is 11-5 in 2019 with the second half only) Likewise, Lions would start 3-1 before losing their their last seven straight.
- Saints start 0-4, before winning five of their last six (with their lone loss a 1-point loss vs. Carolina).
- Tampa is the lone team to have two ties (vs. Chicago and Los Angeles).
- The Rams are undefeated! They have a tie against Tampa Bay. Cardinals are also a 9-win team, but they have a loss (against Washington, of all teams). They are the only NFC West team to not have a draw.
- The 49ers would have a 1-1-1 record after 3 weeks.
- There are no winless or 1-win teams. Scraping the bottom of the barrel are the Packers, Jets and Browns.
- No division has a sub .500 division leader; every single one has at least a 6-win team.
- Interestingly, Sean McVay and Sean McDermott have amazing records leading at halftime. McVay is 32-0, McDermott is 24-2. However, McVay would gain 2 wins in this scenario, while McDermott's Bills would go to last in the division.
- Both teams that are 1-9 in the first half, Jacksonville and Washington, have many more. Jacksonville has 4, Washington has 8. (Although in the first half scenario, WFT has moved to 2-9 after yesterday's Dallas game)
- The race for the NFC's lone by week is led by the Rams, followed by the Cardinals and Football Team.
- On the AFC side, it's a dead heat between Kansas City and Pittsburgh, both sitting pretty at 8-2.
submitted by Winstonp00 to nfl [link] [comments]
Nfl week 17 ton of bets
Looking to bet up to 5 oz generic per game, unless otherwise stated. I only bet with established bugs. If odds are different than what's listed, let me know in the comments and we'll agree to the new odds.
First Half Bets ❌
Washington vs Philadelphia +2.5, I want Philadelphia +2.5 ❌
L.A. Chargers vs Kansas City +3, I want Kansas City +3 ❌
Pittsburgh vs Cleveland O/U 21.5, I want the over ✅
Miami vs Buffalo O/U 20.5, I want the over ✅
L.A. Chargers vs Kansas City O/U 21, I want the over u/godfatherofganja for all above bets for 5 ozs
Full Game: ✅
Pittsburgh vs Cleveland O/U 43, I want the over u/godfatherofganja First Half Money Line:
❌
Seattle vs San Francisco +1000, My 2 ozs on the tie vs your 20 ozs on not the tie u/godfatherofganja Money line: ❌
Pittsburgh vs Cleveland +370, My 3 ozs on Pittsburgh vs your 11 ozs and $3 on Cleveland u/godfatherofganja Baltimore vs Cincinnati +700, My 3 ozs on Cincinnati vs your 21 ozs on Baltimore ❌
❌
L.A. Chargers vs Kansas City +190, My 5 ozs on Kansas City vs your 9.5 ozs on L.A. Chargers u/godfatherofganja Alternative lines from Fan Duel: Miami vs Buffalo O/U 60.5 +800, My 3 ozs on the over vs your 24 ozs on the under ✅
Miami vs Buffalo O/U 68.5 +3300, My 2 ozs on the over vs your 66 ozs ✅
✅
L.A. Chargers vs Kansas City O/U 47.5 +180, My 5 ozs on the over vs your 9 ozs on the under u/godfatherofganja ✅
L.A. Chargers vs Kansas City O/U 53.5 +390, My 3 ozs on the over vs your 11.7 ozs on the under u/godfatherofganja ❌
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis O/U 41.5 +230, My 5 ozs on the under vs your 11.5 ozs on the over u/godfatherofganja Rules: Games must go a complete four quarters for full game/money line bets. Any game postponed more than 48 hours is canceled, unless both betters agree to the move. Overtime points count for O/U bets. If you have any other concerns, let me know before locking in.
submitted by Addictedtocoins to silverbugbets [link] [comments]
Streamin' to the 'Ship - Week 3
For a little while now, I have been doing my own weekly defense rankings since quickonthedrawl stopped posting his famous "Defense Wins Championships" posts. I've had some success with my strategy and thought I might give sharing a shot. If it's received well, I'll look into doing it on a weekly basis. With that I present Streamin' to the 'Ship.
I'm getting a lot of questions about my methodology so I'll try to explain a little about what I do to come up with these rankings and how I use them. First of all, I want to mention that I don't claim this to be the end-all be-all of fantasy DST rankings. There are a couple really great weekly posts on here that also put a lot of statistical knowledge and analysis into their rankings. You might prefer those and I'm okay with that. Having said that, I also personally don't always make a play off of what my model tells me. For instance, this week Indy is at the top, which I think is a great play, but my favorite play is the Chargers D for week 3. This is my gut feeling (it's large enough I tend to trust it). Also, Cleveland is ranked pretty high but if I were holding any of Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, New England, or Buffalo, I'm holding and playing that out. Especially if you're looking at a decision consisting of something like Cleveland vs Tampa Bay. There isn't much that separates the two this week, Tampa Bay would probably be the smarter play. Not only that, but they are a better DST in general and the better DST going forward. Fantasy football is so subjective with so many different outcomes and factors to consider that any of these lists should be looked at as guidelines and not manuals. Initially, I was only going to rank the DSTs owned in under 50% of most leagues as this is what I do for myself when needing to stream a defense. Which, by the way, I think streaming is a great way to approach setting this position every week as it can give you a lot of flexibility when playing the waivers, although it can also be pretty grueling at times. I included a full ranking because as I mentioned above, some discretion might be wise to use when holding a good DST with a not so great matchup. Comparing that DST with others that might be available only gives you options. Last thing I'll mention regarding this before getting into how I establish these rankings is to keep in mind there are different methods behind streaming defenses or how to handle this position in general if playing the weekly game can be too much, which again, subjectivity. These can include finding two solid defenses to hold onto all year and playing matchups if your bench size is large enough to allow for this. This is usually a better method later in the year as it's smart to fill your bench with high-upside talent and lottery tickets. Along these same lines, if you have one of the better DST, I would almost never suggest dropping them for a one week matchup play. I've had a lot of luck rolling with a solid D with a bad matchup and spending more of my time focusing on improving my other key positions. If a defense is really good, they're bound to make a play or two that will get you points, regardless of the matchup. Now, my apologies for the long winded intro, onto how I establish my rankings. I derive these from a fairly simply model that takes into account different factors including, but not limited to: Injuries, skill-player and line matchups, current season success (for both the defense and the offense they're up against), home vs. away (not so much this year), weathefield conditions, Vegas odds, and a touch of personal analysis. I've been playing fantasy football for 14 years and like most, I think I'm decent. I have had a lot of success over the years though and realize greatly that ff is a cruel mistress that doesn't always stick to the trends or perform "the way it's supposed to", I always keep that in mind when deciding on the play to make. In the future, if I decide to continue to share, I'll try to post by Tuesday, Wednesday afternoon at the absolute latest (this post was on a whim). I am also highly considering posting with it, the previous weeks accuracy results. I have always been one to admit when I was wrong and bask in my success. We'll see how this week goes. Good luck everyone! TLDR: Fantasy is subjective, look at this as a guideline not a manual. Soap box. Tangents. I try to account for and use: injuries, skill-player and line matchups, current season success (for both the defense and the offense they're up against), home vs. away (not so much this year), weathefield conditions, Vegas odds, and a touch of personal analysis when deriving my rankings.
WEEK 3
Note: Defenses with an (*) are most likely owned in under 50% of leagues and worth possibly looking at as a weekly streaming option if the defense you're holding isn't ranked higher or a better DST in general. Ranked best to worst.
TEAM: | OPPONENT: |
Indianapolis | vs New York J. |
Los Angeles C. | vs Carolina |
Cleveland* | vs Washington |
Tampa Bay | at Denver |
San Francisco | at New York G. |
Pittsburgh | vs Houston |
Philadelphia* | vs Cincinnati |
New England | vs Las Vegas |
Atlanta* | vs Chicago |
Buffalo | vs Los Angeles R. |
New York G.* | vs San Francisco |
Jacksonville* | vs Miami |
Tennessee | at Minnesota |
Arizona* | vs Detroit |
Los Angeles R. | at Buffalo |
Houston* | at Pittsburgh |
Denver* | vs Tampa Bay |
New Orleans | vs Green Bay |
Carolina* | at Los Angeles C. |
Washington* | at Cleveland |
Chicago | at Atlanta |
Baltimore | vs Kansas City |
Seattle* | vs Dallas |
Miami* | at Jacksonville |
Cincinnati* | at Philadelphia |
Minnesota* | vs Tennessee |
Las Vegas* | at New England |
New York J.* | at Indianapolis |
Green Bay* | at New Orleans |
Kansas City | at Baltimore |
Detroit* | at Arizona |
Dallas* | at Seattle |
submitted by LeeRoyBrownTown to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]
V1per's Week 5 Survivor/Eliminator Pick
Well week 4 was a bit closer than I would have liked. Rams were nearly 2 TD favorites and were only up by a point in the middle of the 4th quarter. Luckily for us, a win is all the same no matter what the score is. Unfortunately there weren't any major upsets and the Rams were a super popular pick so odds are not many people if any at all lost in your leagues.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team I should pick New Orleans Saints. Currently favored by more than a TD at home against a 1-3 Chargers team. Houston and Baltimore are also solid choices.
Top 4 Options:
Rank | Team | P(Win this week) | P(Win Out) | E(Wins) |
1 | NO | 75% | 5.1% | 14.37 |
2 | HOU | 71% | 4.9% | 14.34 |
3 | BAL | 88% | 4.8% | 14.34 |
4 | ARI | 74% | 4.8% | 14.33 |
SUNDAY UPDATE
Rank | Team | P(Win this week) | P(Win Out) | E(Wins) |
1 | NO | 77% | 5.3% | 14.40 |
2 | ARI | 74% | 4.9% | 14.35 |
3 | HOU | 70% | 4.9% | 14.34 |
4 | BAL | 86% | 4.8% | 14.33 |
NO is still the top choice as their line moved to -8, while the other three simply moved around a little bit.
Season so far 4-0. Let's keep rolling.
Rest of Season outlook Teams in italics are changes from last week. This is simply to give some insight into why team X or Y aren't being picked this week. It's usually because they are better off being used later in the season, or it's because I've already used them.
Week | Team | Opponent | P(Win) |
1 | BUF | NYJ | 100% |
2 | TB | CAR | 100% |
3 | CLE | WSH | 100% |
4 | LAR | NYG | 100% |
5 | NO | LAC | 75% |
6 | IND | CIN | 76% |
7 | PHI | NYG | 73% |
8 | KC | NYJ | 91% |
9 | ARI | MIA | 69% |
10 | GB | JAX | 87% |
11 | PIT | JAX | 76% |
12 | DAL | WSH | 76% |
13 | SEA | NYG | 87% |
14 | SF | WSH | 83% |
15 | TEN | DET | 75% |
16 | BAL | NYG | 87% |
17 | NE | NYJ | 81% |
We have one single game under the 70% mark -- week 9 ARI vs MIA. We'll worry more when we get there, but now also have quite a few in the 80s which feels good. Just some slight shuffling from last week. Dropped Chicago, and added the Eagles as we are starting to see just how bad the Giants are.
Nerdy Math Stuff P(Win Out) = 5.1% (+1.1pp)
E(Wins) = 14.37 (+0.22)
Methodology I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download I found an error where Monday night games were being selected even if you didn't want them to be. If this affects you, you might want to redownload.
Mediafire I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.
submitted by V1per41 to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]
Week 13: Who to Root For (Playoffs and StonkyTonks)
Last week did not go well for us regarding playoff odds and stonks. We won, but so did the bills, the texans won, and by my count, who we were rooting for went 4-12-2. Not good.
Odds taken from
hebleb's
post Win Division: 15% (+0%) Win Wildcard: 35% (+9%) Miss Playoffs: 50% (-9%) Division Leaders:
Seed | Team | Record | Conf |
1 | Steelers | 11-0 | 8-0 |
2 | Chiefs | 10-1 | 8-1 |
3 | Titans | 8-3 | 6-3 |
4 | Bills | 8-3 | 6-2 |
Wildcard Standings:
Seed | Team | Record | Conf | WC Odds |
5 | Browns | 8-3 | 5-3 | 82% |
6 | Dolphins | 7-4 | 4-3 | 35% |
7 | Colts | 7-4 | 3-4 | 37% |
8 | Raiders | 6-5 | 4-3 | 61% |
9 | Ravens | 6-5 | 4-5 | 57% |
Who to Root For:
Matchup | Who to Root For | Result |
New Orleans (9-2) vs Atlanta (4-7) | Atlanta. Trying to keep that Texans draft pick as valuable as possible. | L 0-1 |
Detroit (4-7) vs Chicago (5-6) | Detroit. Texan's stonk protection. | W 1-1 |
Cleveland (8-3) vs Tennessee (8-3) | Tanny. Titans are the division leader and help us by defeating a wild card contender. | L 1-2 |
Cincinnati (2-8-1) vs Miami (7-4) | Fins up. Please let us watch Tua play. | W 2-2 |
Jacksonville (1-10) vs Minnesota (5-6) | Vikings. Jags aren't catching the Texans and I'd prefer TLaw in Jax. | W 3-2 |
Las Vegas (6-5) vs NJ Jets (0-11) | We want the raiders to lose. | L 3-3 |
Indianapolis (7-4) vs Houston (4-7) | Colts. I know the Colts are are WC contender, but we control our destiny and a better draft pick is incredibly valuable. | W 4-3 |
LA Rams (7-4) vs Arizona (6-5) | Arizona b/c they beat the Bills, but otherwise doesn't matter. | T 4-3-1 |
NY Giants (4-7) vs Seattle (8-3) | Giants. They're tied with the Texan's pick. If the Seahawks win, it's bad for the Jetes. Either outcome is positive! | W 5-3-1 |
Philadelphia (3-7-1) vs GB (8-3) | Eagles. They're currently picking before the Texans and a GB loss weakens the Texan's SoS | L 5-4-1 |
NE (5-6) vs LA Chargers (3-8) | Chargers. FTP. Go stonks. | L 5-5-1 |
Denver (4-7) vs KC (10-1) | Denver. Protect the Texan's pick, but I'd be afraid of the Chiefs after an L. | L 5-6-1 |
Washington (4-7) vs Pitts (11-0) | WFT. Protect the Texan's pick and Pittsburgh gets their first loss. | W 6-6-1 |
Buffalo (8-3) vs SF (5-6) | SF. Puts us back in the running for the division and boosts our SoS. | L 6-7-1 |
Dallas (3-8) vs Baltimore (6-5) | Cowboys. Evens them up with the Texans' record and further brings down the Ravens from the WC spots. | L 6-8-1 |
BYE week | Tampa and Carolina | FTJ |
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NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.
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1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.
Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.
Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.
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2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.
Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.
Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.
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3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.
Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.
Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.
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4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.
Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.
Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.
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5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.
Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.
Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.
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6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.
Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.
Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.
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7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.
Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.
Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.
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8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.
Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.
Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.
If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) -
https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]
vegas odds baltimore vs chargers video
Odds on the 2021 Super Bowl 55 NFL Matchup according to Bovada Sportsbook. Updated on January 24, 2021. SUPER BOWL 55 - Exact Matchup Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers +155 Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers +333 Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers +250 Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers +450. SUPER BOWL 55 - Exact Outcome Date: February 6, 2022 Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles Super Bowl 56 Odds. Kansas City +550 (bet $100 to win $550) Green Bay +900. Tampa Bay +900. Baltimore +1200. Buffalo +1200. Los Angeles ... An AFC West showdown starts Week 15 as the Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (7-6) on Thursday, December 17, 2020. Entering Monday, December 14, Las Vegas is currently the first team out of the playoffs, while the Chargers are looking forward to the 2021 draft. The Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (7-6) for the Week 15 Thursday Night Football game at 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Chargers-Raiders betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.. Also see: Chargers at Raiders prop predictions Chargers at Raiders: Betting odds, spread and lines. Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a ... Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens Odds - Sunday January 6 2019. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports and matchup stats for bettors. Week 15 NFL Schedule And Odds Thursday, December 17. Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5), 8:20 p.m. (Fox/NFL Network) Saturday, December 19 2019 Los Angeles Wild Card Weekend Odds. Sunday, January 6 2019. No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers defeated No. 4 Baltimore 23 – 17 in Baltimore LA Chargers 12-4 in the regular season, which was tied for the best record in the NFC and was just one game back of the best record in the NFL will Face off with Tom Brady and the Patriots next Saturday. Chargers-Raiders Betting Odds. Line Movements. Spread: Las Vegas -3.5 Money-Line: Raiders -180, Chargers +160 Total: 53 Odds Subject to Change. 2020 Betting Stats (Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U) The latest Baltimore team stats, NFL Futures & Specials, including Vegas Odds the Ravens Winning the NFL Championship, Baltimore NFL News & other info on the Baltimore Ravens. Pick the Ravens to win the Super Bowl with our Printable 2020 NFL Playoff Bracket , So what are you waiting for Signup and Bet on the Baltimore Ravens Today! After opening at 55, the Chargers vs. Raiders over/under has dropped to a consensus of 53.5 (click here the latest Thursday Night Football odds). Sharps, potentially reacting to the news that explosive rookie wire receiver Henry Ruggs III will not play tonight for Las Vegas after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, have popped this under ...
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