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Week 17 Recap: Meh. Overall it was a decent week, we just missed on the Jets plus some points for a big day on a few plays. submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] Singles (10-12 +4.02u) Parlays (0-2 -7u) Teasers (0-1 -3.86u) BBDLS (0-7 -9u) https://preview.redd.it/3q91paz3rba61.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f33be1eb67eb515b339c606d16728951a301378 Super Wildcard Weekend!!! Saturday Games Colts at Bills: Quite an interesting matchup to open the day. The Colts only made it to the playoffs this year because the Bills helped them get in. The Colts needed the Bills to beat Miami in week 17, otherwise the Bills would be re-matching Miami, a team that they clearly would have crushed if they rested starters for a loss in week 17 like PIT. How ironic would it be if the Colts bumped the Red HOT Bills out in the first round?! 😅 Welp.... "The Bills are the fourth team over the last 40 seasons to enter the playoffs on an eight-game cover streak. The three teams before them all covered the spread in their first playoff game and won by at least 12 points. Additionally, Indy has failed to cover in each of its last three games, which is the longest active streak by a playoff team. "... it looks as if it might be an uphill battle. However, lets not hop on the Bills Mafia train too quickly. It appears that around 80% of the tickets and the cash are on the Bills, but the line hasn't moved from its 6.5 open except to DROP down to 6 in some spots. This is very indicative on some sharp money keeping balance on the Indy side. The same is true for the total. 80% of the tickets and 75% of the money is on the over, but the line opened 51.5 and has stayed true, or dropped to 51 in some spots. Looking deeper, we see one of the Bills weaknesses is their run defense. That plays perfectly into the Colts build as they are a team that likes to play great defense, establish the run, and take a few shots with Rivers. Also, Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with an average of 10.3 first-quarter points per game and the Colts scored at least 20 points in the first half in four of their final five games. If the Colts can build an early lead and rely on the run, this game has potential for an upset. Especially with how sneaky good their defense can be. As hard as it may be to bet, the value seems to be on the Colts with the points. If you're feeling really spicy and public contrarian, this is one of the three games I think a contrarian play holds some value this weekend. Rams at Seahawks: The first of the two divisional rematches of the weekend. The LA Rams won their week 17 game with a backup QB in his first start. That places them up against the Seahawks who ended the season with a close divisional win vs. the 49ers. (Before typing this rest of this match up, I want to put a disclaimer of Bias. I am on the Hawk train this year. My futures plays include them, and Baltimore(I had 4 futures plays paying above my "true odds" but the only two I played were SEA and BAL) Take my write up on this game with a grain of salt as I will be predicting SEA to win every game until they hold the SuperBowl trophy 🤑) First off we have the Rams. One of the main things they have going for them is their defense. It is by far the best in the league, with the next closest defense being the Steelers. That defense is legit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sack Russ a few times and if they are lucky, get points on defense. The second thing they have going for them is their coach. I think (don't quote me) McVay is 5-3 against SEA since he took over and he just won last week with a QB that had never played a NFL snap and went on to throw a pick on the opening drive and score 0 TDs in the game. Even IF Goff comes back and is 100% healthy, he only threw for 536 yards with 0 touchdowns and an interception while posting a QBR of under 55 in the combined first two matchups this year. Now Seattle on the other hand. If they can pull it all together, meaning their first half of the season offense with their second half of the season defense....Game over. On the league. For this game in particular though, I don't think much has to be done. The most I can give back up QB for the Rams is 10-13 points and if Goff is in, I give him a ceiling of 20-23 points (Ceiling is all things going well) So IF Goff his 100 percent healthy, hits his ceiling, AND the Rams defense continues its regular season dominance by helping out with a score and keeping SEA under 24-27, then maybe the Rams can win. But lets be real, the Rams were my second favorite team to come out of the NFC (Behind SEA) until they played the Jets. From that game on, it has been a feeling of MEH, when considering the Rams chances to advance this year. And to top that feeling off, Russ is a perfect 5-0 in post season Home Games and Carrol is also perfect at home in the post season at 6-0. The last time that Seattle lost in the playoffs at home was against the St. Louis Rams in 2004. Now I know this isn't the Legion of Boom, and the 12th man won't be there because...COVID... but Russ and company having the edge of no travel, sleep in their own bed... Is all I need. I am ride or die on Seattle, baby! Tampa Bay at Washington: This is one of the harder games for me to gauge. My algo has this as a Tampa Bay victory the majority of the time (82/18). It sees this game similar to the Rams situation in that their defense is pretty good, can possibly get some points, but the offense may have a hard time finding the end zone. My algo does favor this spot for the WAS defense, more than it does the Rams defense, based solely on the offensive line for TB vs SEA and the mobility of SEA QB vs. Lead Toes Tommy when he is under pressure. But, EVEN IF WAS somehow gets a defensive score and an extra turnover or two, can they really keep up with how Brady has been playing as of late? Alex Smith hasss returned from his gruesome injury like some kind of God, going 5-1 in his 6 starts this year. ANNNNND The only home underdogs of over a TD in NFL playoff history: • 2010 7-9 Seahawks WON OUTRIGHT "Beast Quake" - Marshawn Lynch's TD literally set off vibrations • 2011 8-8 Broncos WON OUTRIGHT "Tebow 3:16" - Tim Tebow throws for 316 yards & OT TD • 2020 7-9 Washington ???? Five years ago, a 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers team coached by Ron Rivera beat an 11-5 Arizona Cardinals team coached by Bruce Arians in the first round of the playoffs. So confused on this one, I may just look at Gronk to score a TD (He and Brady need 1 to break the record for QB/Pass catcher post season) and stay away from everything else. But Ill probably end up teasing TB and then around game time taking WAS plus the points and looking for a middle. Sunday Games Honestly, It is 2am and I wanna get some sleep. I will touch this up tomorrow, post it and post Sunday games on Sunday morning. Singles (101-128-1, -26.09u)
Parlays (6-32, +26.96u)
Teasers (4-5, +30.74u)
Futures plays: (Disclaimer: This is the first season I am making such large Futures plays. These are based upon my algo, but more importantly the fact that the poker side of my life had a great 2020 and I set aside extra Bankroll for just this type of play. My future plays have a very small sample size of being +EV so tail with caution...because I sure am) Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u) Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u) So, when crunching the different SB scenarios (with a Bias towards SEA having a 75% chance to win this first game and 50% chances to win the next two) It gave me that the SEA/BAL matchup was at 3.4 percent of the time and if we assume SEA wins that 50% of the time we get crudely a 1.7% chance of happening. DK is paying 100-1 for SEA to beat BAL in the superbowl. Since I already have futures on SEA to win the NFC and SB, I took the SEA to beat BAL 100-1 odds thinking that if by some stroke of luck we get the 1.7% universe, I will have already won SEA to win NFC and can consider hedging those winnings on the BAL side if they happen to be catching points. I know its a universe that is only 1.7% in existence (and that's in my mind too, haha) but based upon those calculations the casinos true odds should be closer to 58.8-1 and they are paying 100 to 1. So to wrap all that up... LETS GO ALL BIRDS SUPERBOWL!!!! SEA to beat BAL in the SuperBowl (90u to win 9000u) Thanks for reading everyone! Check back tomorrow for my Sunday picks. Good luck to all! 🤩 |
Promo Code THEMAC submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments] Join the MyBookie Super Contest - Here MAC's Money Making NFL Player Matchup - Key matchup breakdown from our in house analysts + Predictions.Website: RedAlertWagers.com Contact: [email protected] Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613)The Red Line - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) - Text The Red Line to get a free exclusive release prediction. Follow The MAC on Social Media: Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks Instagram.com/RedAlertWagers Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin vs. Broncos CB Michael OjemudiaAfter missing a game, Godwin is back making the Buccaneers' offense a big percent better. Godwin was Tom Brady's go to in week 1, earning each one of his 7 catches for 79 yards, lined up outside or in the slot he can get it done with the big plays. When Godwin is lined up wide to the offense's left, will come the matchups with Ojemudia, the rookie third-rounder out of Iowa.With A.J. Bouye out, Ojemudia played out every snap last weekend in Pittsburgh. Ojemudia struggled and will be struggling this week too, but at 6-1 and 2 bucks he poses a size advantage against Godwin. The Bucs' 2019 leading receiver with 1,333 yards, Godwin is the Bucs' best pass-catcher in the open field after he has the ball in his hands, so Ojemudia will have to be on his tackle game, he has the body mass to make a things happen making for a key factor and this weeks money making match up. Quick Trends:
Play: 1st Quarter over 7.5 FIRST HALF Play: Over 21 (+5 UNITS) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs DENVER BRONCOS - BRONCOS - Team Total Play: Over 19.5 (+5 UNITS) \*Exclusive Offer*\ - Join The Gambling Report Free for 90 Days - Consensus Reports, Online Casino Offers, Vegas Specials, Betting News Updates, Inside Information, In-House Game Reports, Interviews with Local and International Bookies, Gambling Groups, and Top Earners** - MAC's Gambling Report Free on SubStack ($39.99 Value) Get MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions - Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers. MAC has 3 Top Rated NFL plays today plus his exclusive 2x NFL parlay. The MAC has been riding the magic bull, special release plays going 4-1 in weeks 1-2-3 and today will be a true bookie smasher day. MAC is making bankrolls fat again for his Patreon Clients and Gambling Report subscribers have been reporting record earnings since the start of the newsletter! Today's game releses are courtesy of the RedAlertWagers.com team as well as Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman - The Odds Maker Assassin and International Sharp Betting, A True Sports Betting Professional! |
submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments] Use Promo Code - THEMAC 9/27 - TOP RATED NFL PLAYS + SPECIAL RELEASE BETTING ACTION & GAME BREAKDOWNSWebsite: RedAlertWagers.comContact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) The Red Line - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) - Text The Red Line to get a free exclusive release prediction. Follow The MAC on Social Media: Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks Instagram.com/RedAlertWagers MAC Media - Find Betting Bonuses and Free Deposit Matches from MyBookie and other top rated sports books on the Reddit Media Pages! The Reddit Sports Report The NBABETS Sub-Reddit MAC's Stock Market Tips \*Exclusive Offer*\ - Join The Gambling Report Free for 90 Days - Consensus Reports, Online Casino Offers, Vegas Specials, Betting News Updates, Inside Information, In-House Game Reports, Interviews with Local and International Bookies, Gambling Groups, and Top Earners** - MAC's Gambling Report Free on SubStack ($39.99 Value) RedAlertWagers.com MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions - Below Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers. MAC has 3 Top Rated NFL plays today plus his exclusive 2x NFL parlay. The MAC has been riding the magic bull, special release plays going 4-1 in weeks 1-2-3 and today will be a true bookie smasher day. MAC is making bankrolls fat again for his Patreon Clients and Gambling Report subscribers have been reporting record earnings since the start of the newsletter! Today's game releses are courtesy of the RedAlertWagers.com team as well as Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman - The Odds Maker Assassin and International Sharp Betting, A True Sports Betting Professional! Get Today's NFL Hush Money Move + MAC's Late Info Action only on Patreon - $7.00 Get's all MAC's Special Release Action & Top Stock Picks and Options Moves for 1 Month. Guaranteed to make you a fatter bankroll!! - MAC's Picks MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions -Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers.2021 Super Bowl LV Odds
There’s a good likelihood the Niners sit both players even if either is ready to go. San Francisco is 1-1. Their next division game is in Week 6. That’s the battle coach Kyle Shanahan should circle for Mostert’s return. Garoppolo should be ready by Week 4. When it comes to Bosa and Thomas, other defenders must step it up. The 49ers have a good defense, but they lost Richard Sherman in the first week. The Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins are there next three opponents. But, after that, the Niners play the Rams, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and New Orleans Saints all in a row. Things could get tough for the SF defense unless a couple of players step it up. Cowboys provide amazing comeback against Falcons - At halftime of Sunday’s win against the Atlanta Falcons, the Dallas Cowboys were down 29-10. Not only did the Cowboys come back and win, but they came back to win 40-39. The Boys got an onside kick, unheard of in today’s NFL, and then converted a field goal. What’s interesting about the onside kick is that instead of pouncing on the football, Falcon players waited for it to go out of bounds. That makes absolutely no sense and is the reason the Cowboys were able to notch their first win of the season. Atlanta’s defense is the worst in the NFL. Coach Dan Quinn is on the hot seat because of it. Boneheaded plays like the one that led to the loss at home won’t help Quinn’s case to keep his job. Ravens and Chiefs on collision course in NFL Week 3 - There were other Week 2 highlights. The Las Vegas Raiders opened Allegiant Stadium with a solid 31-24 win over the New Orleans Saints while the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson beat Cam Newton and the New England Patriots 35-30. Also, both the Ravens and Chiefs won their respective games. The Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans 33-16 while the KC Chiefs required overtime to beat the Chargers 23-20. Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert played exceptionally well. Coach Anthony Lynn said Herbert would remain the backup if Tyrod Taylor were healthy enough to play in Week 3. We’ll see how long Lynn sticks with that plan. Next Monday night, the Chiefs and Ravens battle. Baltimore looks like the team to beat in the AFC. They were the team to beat last season as well. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens’ defense handles Patrick Mahomes. MAC's Top Rated NFL Picks and Parlays - NFL Odds at MyBookie09/27 - 01:00 PM - Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh SteelersPlay: Pittsburgh Steelers -4 09/27 - 01:00 PM - Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Play: Over 47 09/27 - 08:20 PM - Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints Play: New Orleans Saints -3 09/27 - MAC's 2x NFL Parlay 09/27 - 04:25 PM Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Play: Over 54.5 09/27 - 01:00 PM - Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns Play: Over 44 Promo Code - THEMAC Join XBet and claim a $300 Sign Up Bonus - UFC Odds |
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